Could Baltic and Nordic countries get visitors from Oceania or Americas during this year?

Released 30.6.2020

Updated 30.6.2020 at 2.30 a.m.

On Tuesday, 23 June 2020, the Finnish government set a general country-specific limit for COVID-19 infections of 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days. There should be 8 or fewer infections per 100,000 inhabitants in different countries. If the number of infections in the 14-day period averages 8 or less / day, it would allow travel without special border formalities or quarantine (voluntary 14-day quarantine in Finland). The reference period is in our table 23.6 - 10.7.2020 which is longer than Finnish Government.

We will follow on daily basis now all Oceanian and American countries situation until 10.7.2020. There have been lately discussion with European Union and additionally those Schengen Entry countries. There is final decision by the European Union already marked to 1.7.2020. Then there will be published a list of those countries for whom EU will open external borders and lifting for example voluntary quarantine or other border entry restrictions. 

This gives to Finnish incoming and outgoing travel industry more specific information what to expect in near future of border control and restrictions to travel. Our company planned to organize a sales event in Finland in the end of August, so this gives us also an estimate of foreign travel trade possibility to attend at the event. The most important pieces of information are obviously in the chart where we show the limits of "8 cases/100 000 population in each country". The shown number is for whole 14 days period which is not exactly mentioned by the Finnish Government. But it has been said the Government will be discuss those numeric figures 10.7.2020 and then the new restrictions or regulations will be coming in effect on 13.7.2020. We took longer period in our study by starting 22.6 and finishing 10.7.2020 - just in case. Also for those who are interested the estimates for each day, we added 14 days period what is maximum number of infections per day. 

The best chances to get the status of free entry have Australia and New Zeeland. Both countries have had so far quite "clean record" and the epidemic in control. There have been rumours also getting Canada and Uruguay from the Americas in this list too. We have left our from our chart Uruguay away because it is not than important target market area. 

Colours here such as "green" or "red" indicating if the country is over or below number 8. If it is exact 8, then the chosen colour is "yellow".  "Blue" colour indicates there are daily numbers missing or there are possible non adequate data availalbe. "White" blocks indicates country didn't provide information that day. Cyprus and Turkey will be included and published in our Asia study later this week.

Americas & Oceania Population Population 8 cases 14 days/day Average          
    / 100000 /100000 24.6 - 10.7 since 24.6   Population Total tests 100 Percentage
Argentina 45 190 471 451,9 3615,2 258,2 2122 Argentina 45 190 471 344409 34440900 0,76
Australia 25 495 732 255,0 2039,7 145,7 46 Australia 25 495 732 2414416 241441600 9,47
Brazil 212 541 690 2125,4 17003,3 1214,5 36119 Brazil 212 541 690 3017350 301735000 1,42
Canada 37 738 895 377,4 3019,1 215,7 309 Canada 37 738 895 2676705 267670500 7,09
Chile 19 114 153 191,1 1529,1 109,2 3536 Chile 19 114 153 1096443 109644300 5,74
Mexico 128 918 206 1289,2 10313,5 736,7 5288 Mexico 128 918 206 556198 55619800 0,43
New Zeeland 5 002 100 50,0 400,2 28,6 2 New Zeeland 5 002 100 395510 39551000 7,91
USA 330 986 397 3309,9 26478,9 1891,4 40263 USA 330 986 397 33076248 3307624800 9,99

Source: Worldometer and ToolBox Consulting Ltd.

More information: Kari Halonen, kari.halonen [at] toolboxtravel.fi  

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