The Finnish Government set for European countries a general limit for COVID-19 infections

Released 24.6.2020

Updated 29.6.2020

On Tuesday, 23 June 2020, the Finnish government set a general country-specific limit for COVID-19 infections of 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days. There should be 8 or fewer infections per 100,000 inhabitants in different countries. If the number of infections in the 14-day period averages 8 or less / day, it would allow travel without special border formalities or quarantine (voluntary 14-day quarantine in Finland). The reference period is in our table 23.6 - 10.7.2020 which is longer than Finnish Government.

We will follow on daily basis now all European countries situation until 10.7.2020. In the list there are countries which already have status on free travelling to Finland (6 countries; Denmark, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania and Norway) without quarantine, those ones which were now in the observation by the Finnish Government (12 countries; Austria, Cyprus, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Switzerland) and those ones which were excluded and facing border control, restrictions and quarantine rules.

This gives to Finnish incoming and outgoing travel industry more specific information what to expect in near future of border control and restrictions to travel. Our company planned to organize a sales event in Finland in the end of August, so this gives us also an estimate of foreign travel trade possibility to attend at the event. The most important pieces of information are obviously in the chart where we show the limits of "8 cases/100 000 population in each country". The shown number is for whole 14 days period which is not exactly mentioned by the Finnish Government. But it has been said the Government will be discuss those numeric figures 10.7.2020 and then the new restrictions or regulations will be coming in effect on 13.7.2020. We took longer period in our study by starting 22.6 and finishing 10.7.2020 - just in case. Also for those who are interested the estimates for each day, we added 14 days period what is maximum number of infections per day. 

Colours here such as "green" or "red" indicating if the country is over or below number 8. If it is exact 8, then the chosen colour is "yellow".  "Blue" colour indicates there are daily numbers missing or there are possible non adequate data availalbe. "White" blocks indicates country didn't provide information that day. Cyprus and Turkey will be included and published in our Asia study later this week.

The Finnish Government should lift the "ban" of border control over 20 countries - some which the Government has done already (Baltic and Nordic countries except Sweden). Now we have statistical data over one week so we can see nations which are doing very well, some are in border line and some are already lost if we consider those target market areas to catch summer 2020 as outbound volumes to Finland. Those +20 countries have all COVID-19 cases  lower or even than 8 / 100 000 population. Earlier we thought Czech Republic would be one of those winners but during these past few days infection rates have been going up rapidly. Demark, which was one of those first ones to get lift from border controls and quarantines has also faced some higher numbers in infections. Same thing with Croatia. The biggest concern countries are Russia and Sweden; two neighbouring countries for Finland. Both which are extremely important target markets have faced higher numbers of COVID-19 virus. We have added here also ratio where there are population of the country and how many tested persons there have been. There are some countries which haven't tested so much against COVID-19. There are variation in Nordic countries too, where Finland and Sweden both haven't been detecting virus cases not even close their neighbours.  

Updated the list 29.6.2020 at 11.00 p.m.

FINLAND and COVID-19 cases/country            
goal <8 cases/100 000 population within 14 days, until 10.7.2020        
                 
Europe Population Population 8 cases 14 days/day Average Covid Covid Test Percentage
    / 100000 /100000 22.6 - 10.7 since 22.6 Tests  /Population Population
Albania 2 877 812 28,8 230,2 16,4 63 23283 2328300 0,81
Andorra 77 264 0,8 6,2 0,4 0 3750 375000 4,85
Austria 9 005 972 90,1 720,5 51,5 48 606375 60637500 6,73
Belarus 9 449 339 94,5 755,9 54,0 411 992007 99200700 10,50
Belgium 11 589 239 115,9 927,1 66,2 101 1191959 119195900 10,29
Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 280 868 32,8 262,5 18,7 112 91792 9179200 2,80
Bulgaria 6 948 538 69,5 555,9 39,7 98 133605 13360500 1,92
Croatia 4 105 329 41,1 328,4 23,5 51 78183 7818300 1,90
Czech Republic 10 708 855 107,1 856,7 61,2 142 545973 54597300 5,10
Denmark 5 792 055 57,9 463,4 33,1 45 1040047 104004700 17,96
Estonia 1 326 550 13,3 106,1 7,6 1 106022 10602200 7,99
Finland 5 540 667 55,4 443,3 31,7 8 237500 23750000 4,29
France 65 272 566 652,7 5221,8 373,0 485 1384633 138463300 2,12
Germany 83 782 057 837,8 6702,6 478,8 471 5412655 541265500 6,46
Greece 10 423 210 104,2 833,9 59,6 16 308392 30839200 2,96
Hungary 9 660 454 96,6 772,8 55,2 6 273897 27389700 2,84
Iceland 341 224 3,4 27,3 1,9 2 74424 7442400 21,81
Ireland 4 937 175 49,4 395,0 28,2 10 425030 42503000 8,61
Italy 60 462 246 604,6 4837,0 345,5 194 5341837 534183700 8,83
Latvia 1 886 200 18,9 150,9 10,8 1 148777 14877700 7,89
Liechtenstein 38 127 0,4 3,1 0,2 1 900 90000 2,36
Lithuania 2 722 241 27,2 217,8 15,6 2 418368 41836800 15,37
Luxembourg 625 838 6,3 50,1 3,6 17 178422 17842200 28,51
Malta 441 535 4,4 35,3 2,5 1 94564 9456400 21,42
Moldova 4 034 003 40,3 322,7 23,1 270 63328 6332800 1,57
Monaco 39 239 0,4 3,1 0,2 0 16200 1620000 41,29
Montenegro 628 066 6,3 50,2 3,6 17 13186 1318600 2,10
Netherlands 17 134 624 171,3 1370,8 97,9 79 599872 59987200 3,50
North Macedonia 2 083 374 20,8 166,7 11,9 138 57895 5789500 2,78
Norway 5 420 844 54,2 433,7 31,0 15 331935 33193500 6,12
Poland 37 846 814 378,5 3027,7 216,3 278 1499540 149954000 3,96
Portugal 10 196 828 102,0 815,7 58,3 347 1102066 110206600 10,81
Romania 19 237 972 192,4 1539,0 109,9 317 699688 69968800 3,64
Russia 145 934 108 1459,3 11674,7 833,9 7060 19334442 1933444200 13,25
San Marino 33 931 0,3 2,7 0,2 0 5669 566900 16,71
Serbia 8 737 493 87,4 699,0 49,9 174 393863 39386300 4,51
Slovakia 5 459 627 54,6 436,8 31,2 10 208966 20896600 3,83
Slovenia 2 078 936 20,8 166,3 11,9 8 100613 10061300 4,84
Spain 46 754 676 467,5 3740,4 267,2 337 5162909 516290900 11,04
Sweden 10 098 726 101,0 807,9 57,7 225 444607 44460700 4,40
Switzerland 8 654 046 86,5 692,3 49,5 45 566594 56659400 6,55
Ukraine 43 734 422 437,3 3498,8 249,9 884 649150 64915000 1,48
United Kingdom 67 883 135 678,8 5430,7 387,9 954 9290215 929021500 13,69
Vatican City 801 0,0 0,1 0,0 0 0 0 0,00

How to read this chart:

First paragraph is Population of the country. Second the population was divided with 100 000. This way get got

how many units of 100 000 we can get from each country. Third: Then we multiplied that number with 8 which was required 

by the Finnish Government. This we can get quite exact estimate for how many COVID-19 cases there should be maximum

during the time period 22.6 - 10.7.2020. Finnish Government promised to give 10.7 new information concerning border 

crossing within EU and also about externarl border crossing. Fourth paragraph shows how many detected virus cases there

should be per day.  Then we are coming to those coloured boxes. Here it can indicate sometimes both daily volumes but 

we are interested in mainly to the average number/day and comparing those to max. daily limits. Rest of the charts are

dedicated to testing of COVID-19. There "blue" colour indicates that volume of tested people is rather low or very low. "Green"

colour shows tested volume is rather quite high or high.

Sources: Worldometers and ToolBox Consulting Ltd.

Photo: Map is produced by FROTEX 2020

COVID-19 in Europe. Map by FRONTEX
COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Map by FRONTEX 2020.
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