New Forecast for Chinese Tourism

Released 15.8.2013

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Here is more information about this Forecast gathered by Professor Wolfgang Artl:

COTRI China Outbound Tourism Research Institute has published a new forecast: We expect 106 million Chinese outbound travels and 129 billion US$ expenditure for the period July 2013 to June 2014. Accordingly, China will pass for the first time the 100 million outbound travels mark in the forthcoming twelve months. The Chinese outbound travellers will spend a total amount of 129 billion US$. We have published these forecasts in the first issue of C.O.M.I. China Outbound Market Intelligence, our new quarterly publication. According to the forecast, barring wild-card events, China’s outbound travel market will increase by 17%, the same rate as has been reported for the first five months of 2013, representing a slight slowdown from the 2011/2012 growth rates. The total amount of spending on international travel will increase in parallel to the increase in travels by 17% as well, slowing down considerably from 2011/2012 levels. The new Chinese governments campaign against “hedonism” and “extravagance” will have some impact on official outbound travels which will however mostly be cancelled out by the growing demand for leisure trips especially from second and third tier cities in China.

If the forecast becomes reality, the 100 million outbound travels mark will be reached by China much earlier than 2020, the year quoted most frequently, based on a previous forecast by UNWTO, recently updated to 2015.

It has to be kept in mind that the forecast numbers include overnight and day trips to the Special Administrative Regions Hong Kong and Macau, which could be argued as being, strictly speaking, not international travelling. This will however not stop destinations around the world increasing their efforts to get their slice of the 129 billion US$ cake. 
Wolfgang Georg Arlt

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