French Outbound Tourism Outlook: 2025–2026

Market scale & growth
The French outbound tourism market is set to grow significantly—from around USD 72.9 billion in 2025, to approximately USD 124 billion by 2035, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4 %
A forecast by FMI expects the sector, now valued at ~USD 37 million in 2024, to reach USD 56.8 million by 2034 (4.4 % CAGR)
fmiblog.com.

Pandemic rebound
Outbound trips rebounded from ~11 million in 2020 to 26.8 million in 2022, approaching pre-COVID levels (~29.6 million in 2019). Consumer appetite has only strengthened through 2024–2025, fueled by disposable income, hybrid work flexibility, and renewed interest in international travel

Nordic & Baltic Countries as Pull Factors
Nordic Countries: Rising in Popularity
In early 2024, European Travel Commission data showed overnight stays in the Nordics surpassing pre-pandemic levels. This surge is attributed to: “Coolcations” — French holidaymakers increasingly seek temperate destinations to escape summer heat. Interest in nature, wellness, outdoor adventure, and Northern Lights.

France market insights highlight French travelers’ appetite for nature-based trips, outdoor activities, culture, local lifestyles, and safety. Finland receives French guests via tour operators (winter) and direct bookings (summer), especially with Air France flights French tourists value authenticity—local experiences, sustainable options, and “lived-like-a-local” stays

Baltic Countries: Room for Growth
The Baltics lag behind the Nordics. In early 2024, international arrivals were still below 2019: Latvia -34 %, Estonia -15 %, Lithuania -14 %. However, recovery is underway: Reddit voices note that Latvia is seeing strong post-pandemic tourism (e.g., +7.4 % nights in 2024), reddit.com. Traveler comments highlight a perception of value and off‑beat charms in Baltic cities like Riga

Comparative Trends & Numbers
Region France Trips 2019 Trips 2022 Outlook 2025–26
Overall outbound 29.6 M 26.8 M +5 % growth CAGR
Nordics (overnights) Baseline +9–18 % High, year-round
Baltics Baseline –14–34 % Recovering steadily

By early 2024, the Nordics had not only recovered but exceeded pre-COVID bookings—a strong signal that French interest is rising. In contrast, the Baltics are on a recovery trajectory: Latvia +7.4 % nights in 2024, while Sweden and Malta also saw notable rebounds

Outlook 2025–2026: Why Nordic and Baltic countries matter to French outbound tourism

Health, Nature & Cool Summers
With rising summer temperatures across Europe, French travellers are increasingly drawn to cooler, greener North—Nordic “coolcations” are gaining momentum

Authentic Experiences & Sustainability
French tourists value culture, local interaction, and sustainable offerings—traits strongly embodied in Nordic/Baltic destinations..

Improving Access & Awareness
New flight routes (e.g., Air France to Helsinki) and promotional efforts increase visibility and accessibility .

Market Potential & Segmentation

Nordics: already >2019 levels in early 2024—momentum likely to continue

Baltics: recovering markets, presenting opportunity for marketing and travel experiences

Summary
French outbound travel is bouncing back strongly, with a 5 % growth CAGR projected into 2025.

Nordic countries are standout winners—surpassing pre-COVID tourism levels due to appealing climate, sustainability, and authentic offerings.

Baltics are making progress, though numbers remain lower; improving through targeted recovery strategies.

For 2025–2026, expect continued growth in French demand for cool, nature-rich, sustainable travel—with both Nordic and Baltic regions well-positioned to attract this evolving audience.

ToolBox Consulting at IFTM Top Resa Fair 23.9 – 25.9.2025

The most popular travel trade event in France. Nordic and Baltic countries are competing against Southern European, North African and UK destinations.

Read more: https://www.toolboxtravel.fi/event/iftm-top-resa-2025/

Host of the event is: Mr. Kari Halonen,